Step 4 – Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Now that you’ve joined me on Step 4, it’s most likely because you realized the importance of learning about blockchain technology in Step 3. Well done. But before we get into the details of Bitcoin returns or the return on investment in Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market, let’s first compare the size of the cryptocurrency market to other financial markets.

The performance of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies from a market capitalization perspective

The value or size of any financial market (Market Cap or Market Capitalization) is the value of the assets in that market, usually expressed in US dollars. For example, the value of the US stock market is the price of all shares held by shareholders. Suppose there are only two companies in the US stock market, Apple and Google, and 1,000,000 Apple shares and 2,000 Google shares are listed on the US stock exchange, with the price of each share being $150 and $100, respectively. As a result (from right to left):

{ 1,000,000 times 150 (equals $150,000,000) }

+

{ 2,000 times 100 (equals $200,000) }

=

$150,200,000

The volume of the US stock market in this example would be $150,200,000.

In the global precious metals market, the value of all precious metals, including gold or silver, available in the market, and finally in the cryptocurrency market, the price of all Bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies available in the market is considered the market value or market cap .

But in the foreign exchange market (Forex), the value of the dollar, euro, Japanese yen, etc., traded in a single day is considered the market value or Forex market cap.

In order to better compare the performance of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies and markets, it is best to first compare their market size or value.

US stock market value

The total value of the US stock market in December 2025 was approximately $73,000B ($73,000B) or $46 trillion ($73T) (the total value of companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the Nasdaq (NASDAQ). Among these companies, the market values ​​of Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google’s parent company), and Amazon at that time were $4.12 trillion ($4.12T), $3.56 trillion, $3.75 trillion, and $2.43 trillion, respectively. A total of about 19% of the US stock market value!

Cryptocurrency market value

The cryptocurrency market cap in December 2025 was approximately $3,000 billion ($3,000B) or $3 trillion ($3T). The cryptocurrency market cap is the value of all cryptocurrencies listed on the reference website coinmarketcap.com . At that time, Bitcoin alone had a market cap of $1.8 trillion, or about 60% of the cryptocurrency market cap! Ethereum had a market cap of $371 billion, or about 12% of the cryptocurrency market cap. In fact, Bitcoin and Ethereum accounted for about 72% of the cryptocurrency market cap!

The market value of each cryptocurrency can be calculated using the following formula:

Number of coins in circulation of a cryptocurrency multiplied by the price of the cryptocurrency

Market value of precious metals gold and silver

The market value of gold as of December 2025 was $30,000 billion, or about $30 trillion, and silver was $3.3 trillion.

Daily value of foreign exchange market transactions or Forex

Since countries print and create money indiscriminately, there is no concept of “market value” in the Forex market because the volume or number of dollars or euros or… cannot be counted and determined. Instead, the value of transactions made in a day has been used as a measure of the size of the Forex market. The daily value of Forex market transactions averages $9 trillion. The Forex market is one of the largest and most liquid trading markets in the world .

Comparing the market value of cryptocurrencies with other financial markets

The chart below compares the market value of cryptocurrencies with other markets:

The small size of the cryptocurrency market cap compared to other markets is not a threat, but an opportunity. Mahdi BML

What has been the return of Bitcoin to date?

We have reached the important part of this step, which is comparing the performance or return on investment in Bitcoin and other digital currencies. As you have noticed by now, the digital currency market is a financial market, just like the stock and forex markets, but it is newer than the two. Over the past years, we have faced high price fluctuations, recessions and booms in stocks, foreign currencies, gold, etc. In the crypto market, we have also witnessed the same (and even more) extreme fluctuations and ups and downs.

The simplest investment in any financial market is to buy an asset or commodity, hoping that it will become more valuable or expensive, and then sell the asset at a higher price. With this in mind, let’s assume that in December 2015, we bought some gold and some cryptocurrencies Bitcoin , Ethereum , Solana , Avax , Dogecoin , and Luna, and some stocks of Apple, Google, Microsoft, Tesla, and Amazon. Now let’s see which asset has given us the most profit by December 2025 (a 10-year period):

Digital currencies adoption

The market value of digital currencies shows that there is a huge space ahead of the crypto market. Every day we see new news about banks, companies, and large institutions joining the cryptocurrency market. JP Morgan, as one of the largest banks in the world, has made large investments in its blockchain projects. Tesla has accepted the Dogecoin cryptocurrency as a payment method for purchasing its cars, and it is not unlikely that Elon Musk will provide Twitter with the ability to make in-app payments with Dogecoin. On the other hand, several reputable companies on the US stock exchange, including Coinbase and Micro Strategy, have cryptocurrency assets. In addition, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for cryptocurrencies have been launched on the US stock exchange, enabling users to invest in those funds.

Apart from the acceptance of cryptocurrencies by large companies and institutions, various countries are also enacting legislation to adopt cryptocurrencies. Some countries, such as El Salvador, have even gone further and declared Bitcoin or some other cryptocurrencies as legal tender, just like their country’s official currency. Even the president of El Salvador recently announced that he plans to buy one Bitcoin every day in addition to the Bitcoins he has already purchased.

On the other hand, every time Bitcoin is declared “banned” by a country, a member of parliament, a senator or a large financial institution, it becomes the biggest free marketing campaign that Bitcoin has ever seen. Because in this case, people and companies who had never even heard of digital currencies before become aware of their existence and seek answers to their mental questions in the news, media and social networks. This is where, by learning the technical and financial characteristics of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology , they discover the uncensorability of blockchain and digital currencies and their value, application and efficiency and realize that the government’s efforts to ban digital currencies are limited to superficial psychological warfare and are technically ineffective. Finally, it becomes clear to all people that the walls that monopolistic governments have built to hold people back are collapsing. This is a revolution against the existing corrupt financial system that has harmed so many for so long, and whether leaders want to admit it or not, change is coming .

Bitcoin performance and store of value

Eyes are on the cryptocurrency market. It is predicted that in the future of the real world and the Internet and Web3 world , due to the efficiency of Bitcoin, this digital currency will be used as a store of value , just like the use of gold and silver in the non-Internet world! For the first time in the last few years, economic experts and analysts have mentioned Bitcoin alongside gold and silver as solutions to overcome the global economic crisis.

Buying Bitcoin and the right cryptocurrencies is about storing wealth for yourself or your family. As inflation continues to bite the middle and lower classes, and as hyperinflation pushes entire countries into recession, it’s important to protect your future. Building wealth for future generations may have been easier for our parents and grandparents, but those growing up today are facing skyrocketing tuition, real estate prices, and living costs that haven’t kept up with household income growth. By buying gold, silver, Bitcoin, and the right cryptocurrencies, you’re protecting yourself and your family from currency depreciation.

Large companies (Tesla, MicroStrategy, Square) still hold Bitcoin as a treasury asset.

Important points about Bitcoin performance and investing in cryptocurrencies

Disclaimer : None of this is financial advice. I personally believe in the performance and returns of Bitcoin and well-established cryptocurrencies like Ethereum . On the other hand, many financial advisors today believe that allocating a small percentage of your investment portfolio to Bitcoin and other promising cryptocurrencies is a great idea because this way, you are taking advantage of low risk with the possibility of high future returns. However, it is important that you do your due diligence before making any investment and know exactly what you are buying. In the 21 educational steps that I have designed and prepared for you, my dears, I try to be by your side and answer your questions along the way, like a mentor.

Financial Markets Working Hours

Another factor that may have indirectly affected Bitcoin’s performance over its lifetime is the 24-hour nature of cryptocurrency trading, and as a result, the 24-hour activity of successful bots that are making profitable buy and sell trades. These bots are essentially programs and software that automatically and pre-programmed buy or sell orders to the exchange.

Stock market working hours

The working hours of stock markets around the world usually coincide with the working hours of the city in which the stock exchange is located. For example, the working hours of some stock markets around the world in the same city time and on non-holiday days are as follows:

• Stock markets in New York (NYSE, NASDAQ), Chicago (NYSE), and Toronto (TSE): 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m.
• Wellington Stock Exchange (NZX): 10:00 to 16:45
• Australian Stock Exchange (ASX): 10:00 AM to 4:00 PM
• Tokyo Stock Exchange (JPX): 9:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m.
• Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE): 9:30 a.m. to 3:00 p.m.
• Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX): 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m.
• London Stock Exchange (LSE): 8:00 AM to 4:30 PM
• Dubai Stock Exchange (DFM): 10:00 AM to 2:45 PM
• Tehran Stock Exchange: From 9:00 to 12:30

As you can see, during non-business hours and on holidays, access to the stock market in different cities is not possible. This means that if someone in London wants to trade stocks on the Tokyo Stock Exchange (JPX), they must coordinate their trading hours with the Tokyo Stock Exchange. In other words, they must visit the relevant broker’s website or app and manage their trades from midnight to 6:00 a.m. London time, given the time difference between London and Tokyo!

Forex market hours

The ability of the forex market to trade over a 24-hour period is partly due to the different international time zones and the fact that trades are made over a network of computers rather than through a physical exchange or broker that closes at a specific time. For example, when you hear that the US dollar closed at a certain rate, it means that this rate was at the close of the New York market but is tradable on the next market that opens (the New Zealand market).

Each forex trading day begins with the Australian region opening, followed by Europe and then North America. As one region closes, another market opens or is already open and continues trading in the forex market. These markets often overlap for several hours, providing some of the most active and busiest times for forex trading.

For example, if a forex trader in Australia wakes up at 3am and wants to trade currencies, they cannot do so through forex dealers located in Australia, but they can make as many trades as they want through European or North American dealers.

Another point is that in some cities around the world, the clocks are moved forward by one hour during the summer. To easily view and calculate the working hours in the stock and forex markets, you can refer to this useful and professional website:

Cryptocurrency market hours

Let’s get to the point! The world of crypto is a very interesting one. Since cryptocurrencies themselves are considered internet and digital assets , their transactions, like the internet itself, are ongoing 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, or 24/7. In other words, if you are a member of an exchange , you can manage your transactions any hour of every day. Even if you are not a member of any centralized exchange, you can use decentralized exchanges . In any case, to achieve the highest return on Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies throughout the day and night, you do not need to wait for a market to open in the world, nor do you need to go from one exchange to another like the Forex market.

The role of artificial intelligence in analyzing market returns and performance

Artificial intelligence has transformed the way investors analyze market returns and performance by automating insights, discovering patterns, and predicting trends.

Example applications

• Market sentiment analysis
  • Check social media, news, and forums to determine whether the atmosphere is positive or negative.
  • Example: Predicting short-term Bitcoin price fluctuations based on user activity on Twitter/X.
• Price forecasting models
  • Training machine learning models based on historical data and macroeconomic indicators.
  • Example: Neural networks predict the probability of Bitcoin breaking through a resistance level.
• Risk management
  • Calculate portfolio risk in cryptocurrencies, stocks, and commodities.
  • Example: Automatic portfolio rebalancing when Bitcoin volatility increases.
• Detecting fraud and irregularities
  • Identify unusual trading activities or fraudulent schemes on exchanges.
  • Example: Identifying pump and dump schemes in low-value altcoins.
• Automated trading robots
  • 24/7 trade execution based on AI signals.
  • Example: Arbitrage bots that prey on price differences between Binance and Coinbase.
• Comparative market analysis
  • Compare cryptocurrency returns with gold, stocks, or forex in real time.
  • Example: Dashboards showing Bitcoin ROI against the S&P 500 over 10 years.

I believe that Step 3 and Step 4 clearly explain why we should invest in the cryptocurrency market and blockchain technology. In the next few steps , we will learn which cryptocurrency to buy . In other words, how to choose a cryptocurrency to buy and invest in.