Ray Dalio warns about Bitcoin, Gold and Bubble

Ray Dalio warns about Bitcoin, Gold and AI Bubble

by with No Comment Reviews
Ray Dalio warns that recent Fed moves — ending quantitative tightening and restarting quantitative easing — amount to monetary easing that can feed a late-cycle “Big Debt Cycle” bubble. If the Fed expands its balance sheet while cutting rates and fiscal deficits remain large, Dalio sees classic monetary–fiscal interaction that can monetize government debt and depress real yields. That liquidity can flow into financial assets (pushing equities, long-duration tech and AI valuations higher, compressing risk premia) and into inflation-sensitive stores of value such as gold. Because current conditions show high asset valuations, low credit spreads, low unemployment and above-target inflation, Dalio argues this QE could be “easing into a bubble” rather than stimulus into a bust — a riskier, more inflationary scenario for bonds, stocks, gold and crypto.

What Ray Dalio’s warning means for your portfolio

Market context and core message

Ray Dalio’s analysis frames today’s central-bank easing as potentially stimulative into an already-high-valuation market. That combination raises two central investor questions: where will excess liquidity go, and which assets will best preserve purchasing power if inflation re-accelerates or bubbles form and later pop.

How easing affects asset classes

  • Gold: Acts as an inflation hedge and store of value when money supply rises and real yields fall. If inflation expectations rise faster than real yields, gold becomes relatively more attractive vs. fixed income.
  • Bonds: Monetization and rising inflation expectations reduce real returns on bonds and increase interest-rate risk, especially for long-duration securities.
  • Stocks (especially long-duration growth/AI): Lower real yields and abundant liquidity can push P/E multiples higher, making long-duration tech and AI stocks vulnerable to sharp corrections if inflation or rates surprise to the upside.
  • Bitcoin and crypto: Behave partly as speculative liquid assets and partly as digital stores of value. They can benefit from liquidity and a low-rate environment but are also prone to bubbles and extreme volatility in late-cycle liquidity surges.

Practical investor takeaways

  • Rebalance toward diversification: Hold a mix of cash, short-duration bonds, inflation-linked bonds, gold/exposure to miners, and a controlled allocation to high-conviction equities and crypto.
  • Time horizons matter: If you’re long-term and believe in decentralised digital assets, maintain disciplined dollar-cost averaging. For shorter horizons, reduce exposure to crowded long-duration growth trades.
  • Manage duration risk: Shorten bond maturities or use TIPS if you expect inflation surprises. Consider gold and real assets as partial offsets to rising inflation.
  • Volatility sizing for Bitcoin: Treat crypto as high-risk, size positions so a drawdown won’t force liquidation; use stop-loss rules or options to hedge large positions.
  • Watch the policy signals: Monitor Fed balance-sheet expansion, rate cuts, Treasury issuance/maturity shifts, credit spreads, and inflation expectations — these are the clearest early-warning signs of the dynamics Dalio describes.

Actionable portfolio checklist

  • Reassess fixed-income duration and add TIPS or short-duration funds.
  • Allocate 5–15% to real-asset exposure (gold bullion, ETFs, mining equities) depending on risk tolerance.
  • Limit crypto exposure to a small, well-sized allocation with dollar-cost averaging and predefined risk rules.
  • Trim concentration in long-duration growth/AI positions; consider partial profit-taking during liquidity melt-ups.
  • Maintain cash buffer to opportunistically buy if markets correct.

FAQ on Ray Dalio’s warning about Bitcoin, Gold and Bubble

  • Q1: Why does Ray Dalio think QE now could create a bubble? A1: Dalio argues the Fed restarting QE while asset valuations are high, credit spreads are tight, unemployment is low, and inflation is above target looks like “stimulus into a bubble” rather than stimulus into a depressed market — increasing the risk that liquidity fuels asset-price excesses rather than stabilizing a weak economy.
  • Q2: Will gold go up if the Fed expands its balance sheet? A2: Historically, increased money and credit that lower real interest rates and raise inflation expectations make gold more attractive as a store of value, so gold often benefits from QE-driven liquidity.
  • Q3: Is Bitcoin a good hedge against inflation like gold? A3: Bitcoin can act as a digital store of value for some investors and may benefit from liquidity and low rates, but it is significantly more volatile and speculative than gold; use small, risk-sized allocations and disciplined buying strategies.
  • Q4: Should I sell tech and AI stocks because of Dalio’s warning? A4: Not necessarily. Dalio’s framework suggests elevated risk for long-duration growth assets in a liquidity-driven bubble. Consider reducing concentration, taking partial profits, and hedging rather than full liquidation.
  • Q5: What market indicators should investors watch now? A5: Watch Fed balance-sheet expansion, rate-cut signals, inflation/expectation readings, Treasury issuance and maturity shifts, credit spreads, and equity valuation metrics — these signal the balance of liquidity versus inflation risk

Original Rai Dalio Tweet

Did you see that the Fed’s announcement that it will stop QT and begin QE? While it is described as a technical maneuver, any way you cut it it’s an easing move that is one of my indicators to pay attention to in order to track the progression of the Big Debt Cycle dynamic that was described in my last book. As chairman Powell said “
at a certain point, you’ll want reserves to start gradually growing to keep up with the size of the banking system and the size of the economy. So we’ll be adding reserves at a certain point
” How much they will be adding will be important to watch. Since one of the Fed’s jobs is to contain “the size of the banking system” during bubbles we will want to watch this along with watching its rate of easing via interest rate cuts into the emerging bubble. More specifically, if the balance sheet starts expanding significantly, while interest rates are being cut, while the fiscal deficits are large, we will view that as a classic monetary and fiscal interaction of the Fed and the Treasury to monetize government debt. If that happens while private credit and capital market credit creation is still strong, stocks are making highs, credit spreads are near their lows, unemployment is near its lows, inflation is above target, and AI stocks are in a bubble (which they are based on my bubble indicator), it will look to me like the Fed is stimulating into a bubble. Since the administration and many others believe that restraints should be radically reduced so there can be a big capitalist go for growth approach to monetary and fiscal policy, and since there is a pending big deficit/debt/bond supply and demand issue, I should be excused for wondering if this is more than the technical issue that it is being made out to be. While I understand the Fed being highly attentive to funding-markets risk which means being inclined to prioritize market-stability over fighting inflation aggressively, especially in this political environment, at the same time, whether this becomes a full and classic stimulative QE (with big net purchases) remains to be seen.

At this time it should not escape our attention that when the supply of U.S. Treasury bonds is larger than the demand for them and the central bank is “printing money” and buying bonds and the Treasury is shortening the maturities of the debt being sold to compensate for the demand shortfall in long-term bonds, these are classic Big Debt Cycle late cycle dynamics. While I comprehensively explained the mechanics of how this all works in my book “How Countries Go Broke: the Big Cycle” I want to both note the approaching of this classic milestone in this Big Debt Cycle and briefly review its mechanics.

What I aspire to do is to teach by sharing my thinking about market mechanics and showing what is happening like teaching how to fish by sharing my thinking and pointing out what’s happening while leaving the rest to you because that’s more valuable for you and keeps me from being your investment advisor which is better for me. Here is how I see the mechanics working.

When the Fed and/or other central banks buy bonds, it creates liquidity and pushes real interest rates down as you see in the chart below. What happens next depends on where the liquidity goes.

  • If it stays in financial assets, it bids up financial asset prices and lowers real yields so multiples expand, risk spreads compress, and gold rises so there is “financial asset inflation.” That benefits holders of financial assets relative to non-holders so it widens the wealth gap.
  • It typically passes to some degree into goods, services, and labor markets raising inflation. In this case, with automation replacing labor, the extent to which this will happen would seem to be less than typical. If it stimulates inflation enough that can lead nominal interest rates to rise to more than offset the decline in real interest which then hurts bonds and stocks in nominal terms as well as in real terms.

The Mechanics: QE Transmits Through Relative Prices

As explained more comprehensively in my book “How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle” than I can explain here, all financial flows and market movements are driven by relative appeals rather than absolute appeals. Said simply, everyone has a certain amount of money and credit which central banks influence through their actions, and everyone makes their choices about what to do with it based on the relative appeals of their choices. For example, they can borrow or lend depending on the cost of money relative to the returns they can get for their money, and what they put their money into primarily depends on the relative expected total returns of the alternatives, with the expected total return equaling the yield of the asset plus its price change. For example, the yield on gold is 0% and the yield on a 10-year Treasury bond is now about 4%, so you’d prefer to own the bond if you expect the price appreciation of gold to be less than 4% per year and you’d prefer to own gold if it’s expected to be more than 4%. When thinking about how gold will perform and how bonds will perform relative to that 4% hurdle, one of course should think about what the inflation rate will be because these investments need to pay enough to compensate for inflation that will lower our buying power. All things being equal, the higher the inflation rate, the more gold will go up because most of inflation is due to the value and buying power of other currencies going down due to their increased supply, while there isn’t much increased supply of gold. That’s why I think about the supply of money and credit, which is why I am thinking about what the Fed and other central banks are doing. More specifically, over long periods of time, gold’s value has tracked inflation, and since the higher the level of inflation the less appealing the 4pct bond yield (e.g. a 5pct inflation rate would make gold more appealing supporting gold prices and would make bonds less appealing because it would lead one to have a -1pct real return), the more money and credit central banks are making, the higher I expect the inflation rate to be, and the less I like bonds relative to gold. All else being equal, the Fed’s increased QE should be expected to lower real interest rates and increase liquidity by compressing risk premia, pushing real yields down and pushing P/E multiples up, and especially boosting valuations of long-duration assets (such as tech, AI, growth) and inflation hedge assets such as gold and inflation indexed bonds. Tangible asset companies like miners, infrastructure, real assets would likely outperform over pure long-duration tech once inflation risk re-awakens.

With a lag it should be expected to raise inflation from what it otherwise would have been. If real yields fall because of QE but inflation expectations rise, nominal multiples can still expand, but real returns erode.

It would be reasonable to expect that, similar to late 1999 or 2010-2011, there would be a strong liquidity melt-up that will eventually become too risky and will have to be restrained. During that melt-up and just before the tightening that is enough to rein in inflation that will pop the bubble is classically the ideal time to sell.

This Time is Different Because the Fed Will be Easing into a Bubble.

While I would expect the mechanics to work as I described, the conditions in which this QE would take place are very different from those that existed when they took place before because this time the easing will be into a bubble rather than into a bust. More specifically, in the past QE was deployed when:
Asset valuations were falling and inexpensive or not overvalued.
The economy was contracting or very weak.
Inflation was low or falling.
Debt and liquidity problems were large and credit spreads were wide.
So, QE was a “stimulus into a depression.”
Today, the opposite is true:

  • Asset valuations are at highs and rising. For example, the S&P 500 earnings yield is 4.4% while the 10-year Treasury bond nominal yield is 4% and real yields are about 1.8%, so equity risk premiums are low at about 0.3%.
  • The economy is relatively strong (real growth has averaged 2% over the last year, and the unemployment rate is only 4.3%).
  • Inflation is above target at a relatively moderate rate (a bit over 3%) while inefficiencies due to deglobalization and tariff costs are exerting upward pressures on prices.
  • Credit and liquidity is abundant and credit spreads are near record lows.
    So, QE today is “stimulus into a bubble.”

So, QE now would not be a “stimulus into a depression” but rather a “stimulus into a bubble.”

Let’s look at how the mechanics typically affect stocks, bonds, and gold.

Because the fiscal side of government policy is now highly stimulative (due to huge existing debt outstanding and huge deficits financed with huge Treasury issuance especially in relatively short maturities) QE would effectively monetize government debt rather than simply re-liquify the private system. That’s what makes what is happening different in ways that seem to make it more dangerous and more inflationary. This looks like a bold and dangerous big bet on growth, especially AI growth, financed through very liberal looseness in fiscal policies, monetary policies, and regulatory policies that we will have to monitor closely to navigate well.

Ray Dalio

Scareware

Scareware Blocker

by Cybersecurity basics

Scareware is a type of online scam that displays fake virus alerts or security warnings to trick you into thinking your computer is infected or damaged. The goal is to scare you into calling a fake tech support number, where scammers may try to steal your personal data, gain remote access to your device, or charge you for “repairs” that aren’t needed. A Scareware blocker, like the one in Microsoft Edge, detects these scam sites and warns you before any harm is done.

What Is Scareware?

Scareware is a cyberattack technique that plays on fear. It appears as alarming pop-ups, urgent messages, or fake system scans claiming your device is damaged or under attack. These scare tactics often:

  • Warn you of non-existent viruses or critical system errors.
  • Push you to call a “support” hotline immediately.
  • Redirect you to sites selling fake antivirus software.

Once the scammer has your attention, they may request:

  • Remote access to your computer (allowing them to steal files or install malware).
  • Payment for unnecessary or fake “repairs.”
  • Personal information that can be used for identity theft.

How Does a Scareware Blocker Work?

Microsoft Edge’s Scareware blocker is designed to automatically detect and stop these scams before they cause damage. Here’s how it works:

  1. Detection: Edge monitors known tech scam sites and suspicious pop-up behavior.
  2. Warning: If you land on a flagged site, a warning message appears.
  3. Escape Option: You’re given the choice to leave the page immediately and return to safety.

Why You Should Turn It On

Even experienced internet users can be fooled by realistic-looking Scareware messages. Turning on the blocker can:

  • Prevent scammers from gaining control of your device.
  • Protect your financial accounts and personal information.
  • Save you from paying for fake technical support.

Extra Safety Tips

While the Scareware blocker is a powerful defense, it’s best to combine it with smart browsing habits:

  1. Never trust unsolicited tech support calls — real companies like Microsoft or Apple will never call you about security issues.
  2. Close suspicious pop-ups using Task Manager or your browser’s “Force Quit” feature.
  3. Keep your software updated to patch vulnerabilities.
  4. Use reputable antivirus software as an extra layer of protection.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: What is Scareware and how is it dangerous?
Scareware is a scam that uses fake alerts to make you think your computer is infected. It’s dangerous because it can lead to identity theft, malware infection, and financial loss.

Q2: How does Microsoft Edge protect against Scareware?
Edge’s Scareware blocker detects known scam sites and warns you before you engage with them.

Q3: Can Scareware install viruses on my computer?
Yes, some Scareware pages try to install malware disguised as security tools.

Q4: What should I do if I see a Scareware pop-up?
Close the browser tab or use Task Manager to exit. Never click buttons inside the pop-up.

Bottom Line

Scareware is one of the most manipulative forms of cybercrime, preying on fear and urgency. By enabling the Scareware blocker in Microsoft Edge and following good security practices, you can browse with greater confidence — and avoid falling victim to these deceptive tactics.

Cybersecurity shield protecting data and networks

Cybersecurity Concepts and Fundamentals

by Cybersecurity basics

Table of contents

  1. What is cybersecurity?
  2. Why cybersecurity matters
  3. Core attack types (with quick defenses)
  4. Emerging threats to watch
  5. Modern defense strategies and checklists
  6. Cybersecurity for crypto users
  7. Cybersecurity for Forex Traders and Market Professionals
  8. FAQs on cybersecurity

 

🔎 What is cybersecurity?

Cybersecurity is the practice of protecting devices, networks, applications, and data from unauthorized access, disruption, or manipulation. It blends technology, processes, and people to reduce risk and ensure confidentiality, integrity, and availability.

  • Answer-ready definition: Cybersecurity protects people and systems from digital attacks by preventing unauthorized access and data loss.

⏱ Why cybersecurity matters

Attackers increasingly use automation and AI to scale phishing, deepfakes, and account takeovers. Hybrid work and cloud adoption expanded attack surfaces. Meanwhile, data stolen today may be decrypted later as computing advances.

  • Answer-ready summary: Cybersecurity is critical in 2025 because AI makes attacks faster and more believable, and connected systems multiply the impact.

🧹 Core attack types (with concise defenses)

🔐 51% attack (blockchain)

  • What it is: A single entity gains majority control over a blockchain’s compute, enabling double-spends or censorship.
  • Defend fast: Prefer chains with strong decentralization, finality checkpoints, alerts for reorgs, and multi‑sig treasury controls.

🎧 Side‑channel attack (energy/EM “listening”)

  • What it is: Extracting secrets by observing power usage, electromagnetic emissions, timing, or cache patterns.
  • Defend fast: Use hardware wallets with certified shielding, keep devices updated, enable PIN/passphrase, and avoid untrusted peripherals.

⚡ Fault injection (tampering mid‑operation)

  • What it is: Glitching voltage/clock/laser to force chips into errors that leak secrets or bypass checks.
  • Defend fast: Choose hardware with fault detection, enable secure boot/attestation, and physically secure critical devices.

🧠 Software attacks (inputs and logic abuse)

  • What it is: Exploiting code flaws, unsafe input handling, dependencies, or misconfigurations to read, alter, or destroy data.
  • Defend fast: Patch rapidly, apply least privilege, use WAF/RASP, SBOM + dependency scanning, and threat‑model critical paths.

🔓 Brute force and credential stuffing

  • What it is: Guessing passwords at scale or replaying leaked credentials across sites.
  • Defend fast: Passwordless (FIDO2/passkeys), MFA, rate limiting, IP/device risk, credential leak detection, and unique passwords.

 

🚹 Scareware — Fear as a Weapon in Cyberattacks

Scareware is a manipulative form of malware that uses fear, urgency, and deception to trick users into taking harmful actions — usually by convincing them their device is infected or compromised. It often appears as an alarming pop‑up or full‑screen browser alert with messages like “Critical Virus Detected!” or “Your system will be locked!”, sometimes paired with fake system scans or audio warnings. The goal? Push the victim into clicking a link, calling a fraudulent tech support number, or downloading rogue “security software” that is actually malicious. Modern scareware campaigns use social engineering, fake antivirus brands, and even deepfake audio to add credibility. To defend against scareware, close suspicious windows via task manager (never click “OK” or “Cancel”), keep browsers and security software updated, use reputable anti‑malware tools, and remember: legitimate security alerts never demand urgent payment or phone calls.

🚹 Emerging threats

  • AI‑driven social engineering: Deepfake voices, live video spoofs, and synthetic emails that mimic style and timing.
  • Supply‑chain compromises: A single vendor/update can infect many downstream organizations.
  • Ransomware evolution: Data theft before encryption, leak extortion, and targeted backups destruction.
  • “Harvest now, decrypt later”: Adversaries exfiltrate encrypted data today to decrypt in the future.
  • CAPTCHA evasion: Bots emulate human behavior; legacy challenges no longer suffice.
  • API abuse: Token theft, permissive scopes, and insufficient rate limits expose sensitive data.

 

Threat Vector Why It’s Urgent Example
AI‑Driven Attacks Automates phishing, vulnerability scanning, deepfake scams $25M deepfake CFO fraud case
Supply Chain Exploits One vendor breach can ripple to thousands of customers 2024 CDK Global auto dealer outage
Zero‑Day Vulnerabilities Growing market for unpatched flaws 11 of top 15 CVEs exploited in 2023 were zero‑day
IoT Exploitation Billions of devices with weak security Smart home camera hijacks for botnets
Quantum Threats May break RSA/ECC in future Governments funding post‑quantum R&D
Generative AI Social Engineering Hyper‑realistic deepfake calls, docs, videos Political misinformation & fraud

đŸ›Ąïž Modern defense strategies and checklists

Zero Trust essentials

  • Verify explicitly (users, devices, services).
  • Enforce least privilege and just‑in‑time access.
  • Segment networks and apply conditional policies.

Identity and access

  • Passwordless + MFA on all critical accounts.
  • Admin accounts isolated with hardware keys.
  • Automated offboarding and periodic access reviews.

Email and social engineering

  • DMARC/DKIM/SPF enforced; banner external mail.
  • Phishing simulations and just‑in‑time training.
  • High‑risk workflows require call‑backs to known numbers.

Data protection and recovery

  • Classify data; encrypt at rest/in transit.
  • 3‑2‑1 backups with immutable copies; drill recovery.
  • DLP for sensitive exfiltration paths.

Cloud and API security

  • CSPM + CIEM; least‑privileged service roles.
  • API gateways with authZ, schema validation, and rate limits.
  • Secrets management; no long‑lived tokens.

Application and supply chain

  • SBOM; pin dependencies; sign builds and artifacts.
  • SAST/DAST/IAST + dependency and container scanning.
  • Incident playbooks for vendor compromise.

Detection and response

  • Centralized logging; UEBA and anomaly detection.
  • EDR/XDR with automated containment.
  • Tabletop exercises and purple teaming.

đŸȘ™ Cybersecurity for crypto users (quick wins)

  • Use hardware wallets; enable PIN + optional passphrase.
  • Store seed phrases offline on durable media; never share.
  • Verify dApp URLs and contract addresses; avoid blind approvals.
  • Separate wallets for trading vs. long‑term cold storage.
  • Turn on transaction notifications and spending limits.

 

đŸ’č Cybersecurity for Forex Traders and Market Professionals

In the fast‑paced world of forex, commodities, and CFD trading, cybersecurity is as critical as market analysis. Trading platforms, VPS connections, and account credentials are prime targets for attackers who aim to hijack sessions, manipulate transactions, or steal capital. Traders should secure their edge by:

  • Using a reputable VPS or dedicated server with firewalls, updated antivirus, and encrypted connections to reduce latency without sacrificing security.
  • Enabling two‑factor authentication (2FA) for broker logins and trading apps to block unauthorized access, even if passwords are compromised.
  • Choosing regulated, well‑audited brokers with transparent security policies, DDoS protection, and secure payment gateways.
  • Avoiding public Wi‑Fi for live trades — instead, use a private, VPN‑secured network to prevent session hijacking.
  • Monitoring account activity daily and setting up instant alerts for withdrawals or trade executions you did not authorize.
  • Segmenting devices: keep your trading terminal separate from personal browsing or email to lower cross‑infection risk.

A well‑planned cyber hygiene routine not only preserves your capital but also ensures trade execution integrity — because in volatile markets, even a few seconds of disruption can mean the difference between profit and loss.

 

🧭 Actionable quick checklists

  • Personal: passkeys/MFA, password manager, OS/browser updates, encrypted device backups, phishing skepticism.
  • Small business: Zero Trust starter, email auth, EDR, backups with drills, vendor risk basics, incident plan with contacts.
  • Dev teams: secure SDLC, threat modeling, SBOM, secrets vault, signed releases, API security tests.

❓ Cybersecurity FAQs (featured snippet‑ready)

What is cybersecurity in simple terms?

Cybersecurity is how we protect devices, data, and networks from digital attacks and unauthorized access.

What are the most common cybersecurity threats today?

Phishing and deepfakes, credential stuffing, ransomware, vulnerable third‑party software, and misconfigured cloud or APIs.

How can I improve my cybersecurity quickly?

Turn on MFA or passkeys, update your software, use a password manager, back up important data, and be cautious with unexpected links.

What is Zero Trust in cybersecurity?

Zero Trust means no user or device is trusted by default; everything is verified continuously with least‑privilege access.

Do I need antivirus in 2025?

Yes—use reputable endpoint protection with behavior detection, and pair it with OS hardening and browser protections.

How do I secure my crypto assets?

Use a hardware wallet, protect your seed phrase offline, verify dApps/contracts, and separate hot and cold wallets.

What is credential stuffing?

Attackers try leaked username/password pairs on other sites. Use unique passwords and MFA to stop it.

What is “harvest now, decrypt later”?

Attackers steal encrypted data today, planning to decrypt it in the future as computing power improves.

3 Catalysts pushing crypto forward in 2024

3 Catalysts pushing crypto forward in 2024

by with No Comment Reviews

2024 is starting where 2023 left off. Momentum keeps driving crypto forward, with certain pockets benefitting in particular. Let’s dive into these key narratives and what 2024 may have in store for them.

1- Bitcoin ETF Launch – More than 10 years after the first Bitcoin ETF spot application, it appears we are primed for it to launch this month. Multiple applications from some of the largest asset managers are expected to receive a response regarding their approval as soon as today, January 5.

Bitcoin ETF Applications
Bitcoin ETF Applications

Source: IntoTheBlock’s Bitcoin ETF Perspectives

Will the Bitcoin ETF Finally be Approved? The answer to this question can vary significantly based on the person answering

  • In a Bitwise report surveying financial advisors in Q4 showed that only 39% of advisors expected a spot Bitcoin ETF to launch in 2024
  • On the other hand, Bloomberg ETF analysts have consistently been point at 90% odds of approval for the ETF, while a senior crypto reporter at TechCrunch pointed to the approval for multiple firms, “expecting something tomorrow” (January 5)
  • While traditional finance companies were still skeptical of the Bitcoin ETF approval, people familiar with the matter suggest the approval to be imminent

Is an Approval Priced In? Given the seemingly high odds of approval, is the market move from the ETF already factored in by market participants?

  • Following a hypothetical approval announcement, a poll from crypto anon Hsaka suggests that 50% of respondents believe prices will be at least 5% higher within 48 hours, with just 22% voting it would drop by 5% and the remainder voting for it to remain rangebound. Though not extremely bullish, it does show a positive consensus, opening things up for a potential downside surprise
  • In a recent interview, Jim Bianco also noted that traders have been front-running the potential inflows from an ETF by investing into Bitcoin proxies such as Coinbase’s stock, MicroStrategy and GBTC, all which outperformed Bitcoin in the last quarter

What’s Next? The next week should be interesting as the final decisions are announced

If the ETF is approved, then the market’s attention is likely to shift to whether it’s an initial “sell the news” event first
The next parameter to watch will be just how much volume these ETFs are able to attract within the first days of trading. If these disappoint, there is potential risk for the market, which has been overly optimistic
Regardless of the outcome, the Bitcoin ETFs are likely to continue being a major catalyst affecting crypto in Q1 of 2024

2- Ethereum’s Dencun Upgrade Impact on L2s – After being delayed a few months, Ethereum is on track to deploy its next major upgrade in late Q1 or early Q2. EIP-4844, also known as protodank sharding, is one of the most anticipated changes coming, bringing down transaction costs on layer 2s by 10x or more

L2 TOkens
L2 TOkens

Source: IntoTheBlock’s Arbitrum Incentives Program dashboard

Accelerating L2 Growth – The main layer 2s have been seeing sharp growth in prices and key metrics

  • Optimism’s OP token is up 180% over the last 90 days, while Arbitrum’s ARB has increased by 130% within the same period
  • As we discussed in 2023 On-Chain, the number of transactions on these Ethereum L2s has climbed by more than 90x in the last two years
  • The reduction in transaction costs is expected to attract further economic activity into L2s due to reduced friction

Arbitrum’s Moment – Although OP has outperformed over the last three months, Arbitrum metrics are showing signs of progress in 2024

  • The total amount of trading volume on Arbitrum surpassed that of Ethereum Mainnet on January 4 for the first time, per DeFi Llama data
  • Arbitrum’s incentive program has increased TVL on the L2 by nearly 50%, as shown in ITB’s dashboard

Overall, Ethereum’s transition to L2s has been in motion already, and is set to accelerate following the implementation of the Dencun upgrade. As such, the L2 ecosystem and their tokens are a main area of focus going into 2024.

3- Restaking & Liquid Staking – In terms of new products, EigenLayer’s launch is set to be one of the most anticipated releases of 2024. EigenLayer is an infrastructure layer that will enable “restaking”, or using Ethereum’s existing staked funds in order to validate additional features for applications building on top of it. Its launch is set to bring forth new applications, while benefitting the existing liquid staking protocols.

Ethereum Liquid Staking Perspectives
Ethereum Liquid Staking Perspectives

Source: IntoTheBlock’s Ethereum Liquid Staking Perspectives

Impact of Restaking on LSTs – Restaking on EigenlLayer will provide higher yields on top of the existing staking rate

  • Users of EigenLayer can deposit liquid staking tokens, such as Lido’s stETH, and earn extra yield from the actively validated services (AVSs) they choose to validate
  • Prior to their main launch, EigenLayer has already attracted over $1B in deposits, through their points program
  • Over 70% of deposits into EigenLayer have come through liquid staking, pointing to large role these are likely to play as the launch approaches
  • Building both restaking and data availability services, EigenLayer is also likely to offer one of the largest airdrops in crypto history, as evidenced by the funds they have managed to attract just off of their points system

Just a week into the year, chatter around restaking has grown as EigenLayer reached its cap of the amount of ETH staked into the product. Liquid staking projects governance tokens such as LDO have also been favored by the market, appreciating by over 10% year to date. Ultimately, the launch of this new primitive is expected to be one of the key narratives shaping crypto throughout the year.

The Hidden Dangers of Telegram Mods on Google Play

The Hidden Dangers of Telegram Mods on Google Play

by with No Comment Reviews

The Google Play Store, a hub for millions of apps, has been recently targeted by malicious Telegram clones, jeopardizing the security of thousands. These mods, eerily similar to the original and laden with spyware capabilities, pose a substantial threat to individual and business users alike.

Telegram, an encrypted messaging application, allows and encourages the development of “mods” – modified versions of the original software to enhance user experience. While most mods are developed with user benefits in mind, this openness has inadvertently given cybercriminals an opportunity to exploit unsuspecting users.

Masquerading as “faster” alternatives to the conventional Telegram app, these malignant clones have successfully eluded Google Play’s security measures. They predominantly target Chinese-speaking users, with app descriptions available in traditional Chinese, simplified Chinese, and the Uyghur language. A particular subset of these deceptive apps goes by “Paper Airplane,” which entices users with the promise of faster performance, attributing it to a global network of data centers.

The malevolent clones are distinguished from the genuine Telegram app by an embedded module – a powerful spyware that tracks all messenger activities, from collecting contacts to intercepting messages.

The staggering number of downloads – more than 60,000 – highlights the severity of the issue. The Uyghur-targeted version is especially alarming, considering the past surveillance and persecution faced by this ethnic minority by government agencies.

These revelations raise concerns for businesses, especially in light of the growth of mobile spyware and the vast personal and corporate data housed in smartphones. With businesses now leaning heavily on messenger apps for day-to-day communication, such findings serve as a stark reminder of the omnipresent cyber threats.

In response to these findings, Google initiated the removal of these deceptive Telegram clones from its store. Some of these apps had accumulated up to 10,000 downloads before their eventual removal. Nonetheless, concerns persist as not all versions of the malicious apps have been eradicated from the Play store.

Counterfeit apps have long been a staple in the hacker’s toolkit. Recent revelations exposed another scheme where hackers circulated bogus versions of Signal and Telegram through legitimate app stores to implant information-stealing malware. Another spyware-infused version of Telegram, labeled “FlyGram,” was identified on both Google Play and the Samsung Galaxy Store, as was a trojanized version of the Signal app, named Signal Plus Messenger.

Businesses, to safeguard their interests, are being advised to caution employees about the risks of third-party apps, even when sourced from reputed app stores. Users are encouraged to be vigilant, paying attention to details like the developer and negative user reviews, not just the app’s name.

7 Crypto News of the Week - Arzakhbar

7 Crypto News of the Week – Sep 28th Arzakhbar

by with No Comment News

1. SEC Delays Decision on ARK 21 Shares Bitcoin ETF to Next Year

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has delayed its decision on the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) application of Ark/21Shares and GlobalX. The decision has been postponed for the third time, and the SEC now has until early 2024 to make a final decision. This delay is seen as the SEC’s continued reluctance to approve a spot bitcoin ETF. The delay has been attributed to various factors, including the likely federal government shutdown.

2. 95% of Celsius Creditors Vote to Accept Restructuring Plan

More than 95% of creditors across all eligible classes voted to accept the restructuring plan proposed by Celsius. This acceptance is seen as a major milestone in the context of the bankruptcy proceedings. The plan will see funds returned to the creditors and equity distributed through a new company. Confirmation hearings for the plan are scheduled to begin on October 2, 2023.

3. Ben Armstrong spends night in jail with prowling, simple assault charges

Crypto influencer Ben “BitBoy” Armstrong was arrested and spent a night in jail on charges of loitering and simple assault. He was taken into custody while livestreaming outside a former associate’s house. Armstrong was released on bail after about 8 hours in jail. He was charged with “loitering/prowling” and “simple assault by placing another in fear,” with a bond amount of $2,600 along with $40 of fees.

4. Curve Founder Michael Egorov Repays All Debt on Aave

Michael Egorov, the founder of Curve Finance, has deposited 68 million CRV tokens, worth $35 million, to settle his entire debt position on the DeFi lending platform Aave. After depositing CRV, Egorov converted 10.77 million crvUSD to tether (USDT) to repay all of the debt on Aave. CRV is currently trading at 53 cents, having risen by 3.48% in the past 24 hours.

In August, Egorov raised $42 million through over-the-counter (OTC) sales of CRV tokens to pay off $80 million of on-chain debt. This came after a market-wide tumble in asset prices which put Egorov’s CRV positions on DeFi lenders dangerously close to liquidation. In the event of liquidation, Aave would have had to sell the CRV put up as collateral to the open market, which would have had a cascading effect due to a lack of liquidity. Now, Egorov has 253.67 million CRV tokens ($132.52 million) in collateral and $42 million in debt across four DeFi lenders.

5. Arbitrum Odyssey Relaunched With The First Week’s Tasks Are Now Available In GMX

The Arbitrum Odyssey campaign has been relaunched, and the first week’s tasks are now available in GMX. The campaign’s first task, hosted on GMX, kicked off on September 26 and will run until October 1. Participants are invited to undertake activities such as leveraged trading on the GMX V2 market and sharing GMX referral links across various social media platforms

6. Taiwan Implements Stricter Regulations, Bans Unregistered Foreign Crypto Exchanges from Operating

Taiwan’s Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC) has introduced a set of stringent rules, effectively banning unregistered foreign cryptocurrency exchanges from operating within the country. This action occurs as part of Taiwan’s commitment to enhancing investor protection and promoting responsible practices within the crypto industry. Foreign cryptocurrency firms seeking to operate in Taiwan or serve Taiwanese customers must always register with the regulator and demonstrate their adherence to anti-money laundering regulations.

7. Chinese Tech Giant Tencent Joins CBDC Interoperability Pilot

China’s Tencent, the operator of the WeChat and WeChat Pay platforms, will join central bank-led digital yuan and CBDC interoperability pilots. WeChatPay, along with its rival Alipay, has cornered some 15% of the Chinese payments market. But in recent years, Tencent has moved to align with the People’s Bank of China (PBoC)’s CBDC adoption drive.